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Risk Factors

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This page contains information and summaries of published research that are intended for people with professional training in mental health.  We urge caution since it may be difficult to know how to interpret the information without advanced training in psychology or psychiatry.

We recommend that readers interested in information intended for the general public check other areas of this web site (such as Info for Adults or Info for Children).  They contain similar information, but in a more readable form.  Also, elsewhere we have provided links to other websites that we feel may be helpful.

 

RISK FACTORS

 (unless noted, from Halligan et al., 2000 and Ursano et al., 1999)

Pre-Trauma Psychological Variables:

·         Prior PTSD (8.02 times increase in risk for PTSD at 1 month, 6.81 times increase in risk at 3 months)

o        “It is important to note that previous trauma was not a risk factor for motor vehicle accident-related PTSD. However, previous PTSD was. As suggested by the "kindling" model of PTSD (see below), this may indicate that it is not the previous traumatic event but the PTSD-related alterations in brain function that increase the risk for future PTSD” (Ursano et al., 1999).

·         History of an Axis II disorder (increased risk for PTSD with Axis II doesn’t show up until 6 months post trauma)

 

Personal Variables:

·         Social factors such as family instability may increase risk, and social support may decrease risk

·         Lower levels of education and income

·         Being widowed or divorced

·         Poor coping skills, possible related to prior substance abuse, anxiety (5x increase in risk), or depression (greater risk for acute, but not chronic PTSD)

·         Low intellectual functioning

·         “After adjustment for a history of PTSD and potentially confounding variables, women were 4.39 times more likely than men to develop PTSD at 1 month but did not have a higher risk for chronic PTSD” (Ursano, et al., 1999)

 

Peri- and posttraumatic Variables:

(See section below on Acute Stress Disorder for more information)

 

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Posttraumatic symptoms immediately after the accident appear to be a better predictor of PTSD than the severity of the accident or injury (Koren et al., 1999)

Subjects who developed PTSD had higher levels of peritraumatic dissociation and more severe depression, anxiety, and intrusive symptoms at the 1-week assessment.

Although recent findings have case doubt about the role of peritraumatic dissociation as a predictor of PTSD, some research indicates that it predicted a diagnosis of PTSD after 6 months over and above the contribution of other variables and explained 29.4% of the variance of PTSD symptom intensity.

Initial scores on the Impact of Event Scale predicted PTSD status with 92.3% sensitivity and 34.2% specificity (Shalev et al., 1996).

“. . . subjects with peritraumatic dissociation were 4.12 times more likely to experience acute PTSD and 4.86 times more likely to develop chronic PTSD” (Ursano et al., 1999).

Recent research by Murray et al (2002) has confirmed that dissociation, particularly the persistence of dissociation four weeks after a trauma, predicted PTSD severity at 6 months post-trauma. Rumination four weeks after a trauma was also a very strong predictor of PTSD symptoms.

 

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Higher heart rate following trauma (mean = 94.6 bpm, SD = 18.1 in the ER) may predict later PTSD, although a recently published article found that lower HR soon after a trauma predicted PTSD:

Shalev et al. (1998) found that “Survivors with PTSD had higher heart rate levels at the emergency room and reported more intrusive symptoms, exaggerated startle, and peritraumatic dissociation than those with major depression.”  A study by Bryant et al. (2000) replicated this finding.

Blanchard et al. (2002), however, found that people with elevated heart rate in the emergency room following a trauma had lower levels of PTSD Sx at 14 months post trauma.

 

 

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The information posted on this site reflects our understanding of peer-reviewed research and generally accepted principles in psychology.  It is not intended to be used for self-treatment or as a substitute for individualized assessment and treatment by a licensed professional, and should not be construed as professional advice.

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